Australian Migration Intake in the COVID-19 era

Related: Staged Closure of the 408 Covid visa

Covid-19 (Coronavirus) has impacted immigration intake to Australia. Experts believe that a reduction in migration intake would have a crippling effect for Australia’s coronavirus recovery.

Scott Morrison announced that the government is expecting ‘quite significant falls’ in migration, being a 30 percent decrease in net migration this financial year from the 2018/19 totals, and an 85 percent decrease next financial year.

Australia’s net migration is calculated as the number of migrant arrivals minus the number of migrant departures in a financial year. These numbers include Australian Citizens, Permanent Residents, New Zealand Citizens and foreign nationals holding temporary Australian visas.

In 2020/21 the government anticipates an increase of just 36,000 people. This is a significant decline from the 2018-2019 year, when the Australian Bureau of Statistics reported that the country’s population grew by nearly 240,000. In fact Australia’s net migration figure has exceeded 180,000 every year since 2006. If Scott Morrison’s predictions are correct, Australia will experience the lowest population increase in more than 40 years.

The most significant contributor to Australian net migration in recent years has been temporary visa holders, which includes holders of temporary work visas, student visas, temporary graduate visas, working holiday visas and visitor visas.

In the most recent financial year, there were nearly 120,000 working holiday visa holders in Australia. These are international visitors with the right to travel and work in Australia.

In addition, nearly 140,000 individuals were employed in Australia on temporary employer sponsored visas. As employer sponsored visa holders are required to remain employed for their visa to remain valid and as these visa subclasses do not provide the visa holder with Medicare or unemployment benefits, it is fair to presume that each of these visa holders provide a net contribution to the Australian economy.

Temporary visa holders are at a significant disadvantage during the pandemic and associated lockdown. Although these visas generally entitle the visa holder to work rights while they are in Australia, employers are not permitted to claim Job Keeper benefits for their staff members who hold a temporary visa. Australian employers who are eligible to claim Job Keeper payments have a significant incentive to retain their Australian staff over temporary visa holders they employ.

Temporary visa holders are also not eligible for Job Seeker payments if they lose their job. Australia has a significant cost of living and few temporary visa holders will be able to meet their living costs in Australia without steady employment or financial assistance.

Temporary visa holders are less likely to have strong ties to Australia eg owning property or have family members who live permanently in Australia, and so are likely to return home if they have lost their job. A significant proportion of temporary visa holders are employed in the tourism, hospitality or agriculture sectors, which have been severely affected by the lockdown.

Impact on Economy

Prime Minister, Scott Morrison has cautioned that cuts to the skilled migration program would have adverse effects on the economy and communities. In Australia, there are approximately 2.1 million temporary visa holders and 1.78 million permanent residents. More than 25% of Australians were born overseas and nearly 50% of Australians have a parent born overseas.  Thus, the positives contribution of our immigration policy cannot be ignored:

• Australia’s immigration policy has contributed to nearly 30 years of economic growth.
• We also have the second largest migrant workforce in the OECD.
• Migrants are taxpayers and consumers and they play a big role in the housing market.
• International students bring approximately $39 billion per year into the economy, making international education the fourth-largest industry in Australia.
• Experts predict that low migration level could also reduce the national income by $50 billion over this year and next.

Intake Forecast

The federal government has forecasted that migration intake will reduce by 85 percent due to the travel ban. Scott Morrison told reporters following the national cabinet meeting that “on the 2018-19 year for net overseas migration, we’re expecting just over a 30 per cent fall in 2019-20, the current financial year. And in 2020-21, an 85 per cent fall-off those 2018-19 levels as well.”

The current planning level for 2019-20 migration program is listed below. While it is unlikely that migration level would meet the 160,000 cap, Scott Morrison has indicated that after the global crisis has passed, he intends to maintain migration intake around 160,000 – 210,000 a year.